How sequence of returns risk can impact when to retire

One of the most important financial decisions you make in life is choosing when to retire. You want to enter this stage of life feeling confident that you’re financially prepared for the future.
Market volatility and other financial factors can have a significant impact on your income stream as you approach or enter retirement. One of the primary risks you’ll need to consider is sequence of returns risk.

What is sequence of returns risk?

Sequence of returns risk applies specifically to retirement income planning and is the risk of negative market returns occurring late in your working years and/or early in retirement. At this stage of your investment life, market downturns can have a much more significant impact on your portfolio and your lifetime income strategy, because you don’t have the luxury of time for your investments to recover.

“You always want to be careful about liquidating assets in down markets to meet income needs,” says Baustian. “This is where sequence of returns risk comes into play.”

Retirement financial challenges

Sequence of returns risk is just one of the financial complications you’ll need to untangle before and during retirement.

Financial challenges for retirees include:

• Markets that fluctuate in value. Periodic market downturns are an investment fact of life. “Market volatility is a real risk for retired investors,” says Shannon Baustian, private wealth advisor with U.S. Bank Private Wealth Management. “You should be careful about putting money to work in a passive fashion and simply hoping that you’re on the right side of the markets.”
• Retirements are lasting 20 to 30 years or longer. “You need to have a big enough nest egg to meet income needs over an extended period of time, which may necessitate working longer to accumulate that nest egg,” says Tom Hainlin, national investment strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
• Taxes on retirement income. Most or all distributions from employer retirement plans and traditional IRAs are subject to tax at ordinary income tax rates. “Limiting the tax hit on distributions is important to preserve principal to last through the course of retirement,” Baustian says.

The impact of sequence of returns risk: Two examples

Consider this hypothetical example of two investors who retired in different years. They both invested $1,000,000 on retirement and plan to withdraw $45,000 each year, adjusted upward by 3% every year to account for inflation.

Over the course of retirement, their portfolios generate comparable annual returns but follow a different year-to-year return pattern.

• The first investor benefits from three initial years of positive returns (25% in year 1, 10% in year 2, 5% in year 3) before experiencing a negative return in the fourth year (-15%).
• The second investor experiences a more difficult investment environment in the initial year of retirement (-15%), followed by gains in the three subsequent years (5%, 10% and 25% respectively).

For both investors, the same pattern of returns and income distributions continues throughout retirement.

The first investor benefits by earning positive returns in the initial years of retirement. Their portfolio grows as a result, even as they generate income by liquidating assets. This strong start to retirement allows the investor’s nest egg to generate the desired amount of income for 40 years.

Unfortunately, the second investor retired in a year when the markets were down. Just a single year of negative returns at the outset of retirement meant their portfolio lost significant value. Because they were selling their assets into a down market, their portfolio couldn’t recover like it would have during the pre-retirement accumulation period. This caused significant damage to the investor’s long-term income strategy, with their money running out after just 25 years.

Can retirement planning account for down markets?

How likely is it that your retirement date could coincide with a down market year? Since 2000, markets have experienced negative results 25% of the time.

“Interest rates, inflation, energy prices and government policies are examples of factors that can influence the future path of investment returns,” Hainlin says. “It can be beneficial to broaden your investments and sources of cash flow.

He adds that because of the unpredictable nature of capital markets, “it’s important to develop a strategy that avoids drawing down principal at the beginning of retirement. Once spent, those assets can no longer generate the growth necessary to last through retirement.”

Balance sequence of returns risk with a retirement bucket strategy

“Retirement is a long runway, and you need growth in your assets,” Baustian says.

One income strategy to consider is a retirement bucket strategy, where you set aside a portion of your assets to meet your needs through various phases of your retirement. Baustian notes that financial professionals often look at ways to separate retirement assets into three “buckets” with the aim of avoiding selling assets that can fluctuate in value and are subject to loss in a down market.

1. Liquidity (immediate needs). This bucket carves out assets to meet your day-to-day needs for the first three to five years of retirement. This money should be kept in more liquid assets with minimal exposure to market fluctuations, such as cash-equivalent investments (CDs, money market accounts) and short-term bonds.
2. Lifestyle (short-term savings goals). You can invest a portion of your assets more aggressively to meet your needs for years three to 10. “Use a disciplined asset allocation strategy with these investments so they can continue to grow,” Baustian says. “Some of the money is regularly shifted to replenish the ‘liquidity’ bucket.”
3. Legacy (long-term planning). “The dollars in this bucket can be invested with future generations or key charitable causes in mind,” Baustian says. “There may be more flexibility to invest these dollars in assets outside of traditional stocks and bonds.” You can hold this money until the latter part of your life.

Planning for sequence of returns risk is part of your broader retirement preparation

There are plenty of tasks to check off your retirement list.

“You should consider starting to position your assets for retirement about two to three years before you reach that date,” Baustian says. “It can even be initiated five years out. You’ll want to evaluate all the potential sources of income available to you.” These include Social Security, contributions from company pensions and deferred compensation.

Even before that, you should build a diversified portfolio that better weathers market volatility before and during retirement. This should include with a mix of investments, such as bonds, equities and diversified investments, that aligns with your risk tolerance.

As your retirement date approaches, evaluating sequence of returns risk becomes critical. “Understand what your investment portfolio is exposed to that could put your long-term financial security at risk in the event markets move in an unanticipated direction,” Hainlin says.

He adds that it’s important to maintain a degree of flexibility. “Of course, increased life expectancy is a welcome social development, but it creates significant challenges in terms of the increasing costs of retirement over time,” he says. “Add to that the potential for unpredictable markets, and retirees need to be willing to make adjustments over time to maintain their long-term financial security.”

Learn how we can help you plan and create a retirement income strategy that accounts for sequence of returns risk.